Technical analysis - Adani group.

The best way to make money from stocks is to completely ignore the news and focus only on price action and volume.

While it is a common fallacy to think that if any person or news channel confidently recommends a stock, people automatically think that it must be a good stock.

if you are buying stocks based on the recommendations of influencers and news people, you are not investing or trading; you are gambling.

Not one person in history has beaten mutual fund returns by buying stocks based on news and influencer recommendations.

But but... How can one have sold shares of Adani before the report against him became public? Well, most of the Adani stocks were in a downtrend for a few months. You could have sold them easily without relying on any news. 

Here's the technical analysis of the Adani Group.

1. Adani enterprises. (ADANIENT)

Buy point B1, Reason-

• Took major support over previous high 1.
• Notice that on all pullbacks, the 10day ma has worked as support (purple line). all pullbacks to this area were buyable. any shorting attempts during this rally are low odds and have small targets. 

support is the area where demand for that price is more than supply, thats why most of the time we see bounce in price of share when its near its support area.

Sell point S1, Reason-

• It closed below the rising 10-day moving average, which was earlier acting as a major support but now became resistance.

resistance is the area where demand for that share for particular price is lesser than its supply. thus we see more fall in share price when its near its resistance area.

• Estimated profit - 30%. even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.
• Holding period required for this trade- 2 months.

Buy point B2 , reason

• While the daily chart did not provide a clean setup for an entry after the fall, an interesting pattern did form, providing a very nice consolidation above the 10-day moving average during October.
• One can take entry here with a target of previous high 2.

Sell point S2, reason

we did not sell near previous high 2 and waited for more because resistance line created by previous high 2 was broken very easily in the next trading session and it gave a very good consolidation over previous high 2.

• It was in uptrend from june,22 showing proper strength as trendline (grey) was acted as a major support.
• You can see beauty of chart when trendline (grey) was broken and previous high 2 which was acted as support earlier has now become resistance which was tested several times before further fall.
• Estimated profit from this trade- 10%. even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.
• Holding period required - 1 month.

2. Adani green. (ADANIGREEN)

Buy point - B1, Reason -

• During Dec 21,took major support over previous high 1.
• Been in an uptrend for a while in a series of higher high higher lows. (grey line).
• Was consolidating over previous high 1.
• Resistance lines of previous high 1 were acted as a major support now.

Higher highs and higher lows indicate that an uptrend is occurring with the overall increase in the value of the instrument, while lower highs and lower lows can be seen in downtrends and show a decrease in value.

Sell point - S1, Reason,

• Broke the support line near 2710 which now acted as a resistance after a retest.
• Estimated profit- 65%, even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.
• Holding period required - 5 months.

Avoid buying immediately after a breakout or selling immediately after a breakdown; one must wait for a retest to confirm an uptrend or downtrend.

Buy point -B2 , Reason,

• Resumed trading over trendline after a false breakout. (grey line) 

False breakdown cannot be avoided, generally one should sell only after retest. breakouts and breakdowns works beautifully only after succesfull retest.

Sell point -S2, Reason, 

• after upward continuation, the price acted to resistance and started falling, further it broke down below major trend line (grey) which was acted as a support since Nov,Dec 21. the same trend line is now acting as a resistance now.
• You can clearly see that a retest was attempted to see whether the same trendline is resistance now, which justifies the end of an uptrend.
• Another reason to sell at a point S2 was price did not manage to hold above previous high 2.
• Estimated profit - a minor percentage of profit or breakeven situation.

3.Adani power. (ADANIPOWER)

Buy point- B1 , reason-

• Proper breakout over previous high 1 with a retest to see if previous resistance is now acting as support.

Sell point- S1, reason-

• A beautiful bullish trendline (gray), followed by higher highs and lower lows, was paused, with confirmation given by a retest.
• Estimated profit- 40%, even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.
• Holding period required- 3 months.

after that, on daily chart, stock was in downtrend since Aug 22 in a series of lower high lower lows as trendline (grey) acted as a major resistance.

4. Adani transmission. (ADANITRANS)

Buy point - B1,

• Broke the resistance area and started consolidating over previous high.

Sell point- S2,

• Broke the trendline (grey) which was indicating uptrend since jun,22 in a series of higher highs And higher lows.
• Even after a retest it failed to stay above trendline (grey) which indicates a pause in current uptrend. 
• Holding period required - 2months.
• Estimated profit - 15%,  even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.

5. Adani total gas. (ATGL)

Buy point - B1,

• Broke the resistance area and started consolidating over previous high.

Sell point- S2,

• Didnt managed to hold above previous high during retest.
• One should no longer expect new highs. First, it did not manage to hold above the resistance area, and the second last pullback came all the way down to major support.
• We do not know this for sure, but the chart is telling us that, based on the odds, it is unlikely to make new highs.in the same fluid manner as we have in the past.
• Holding period required - 4 months.
• Estimated profit - 25%,  even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.

6.Adani wilmar. (AWL)

Buy point - B1,

• Gave us a proper breakout over a trendline (grey).

Sell point- S2,

• Started forming lower highs lower lows pattern. (A bearish pattern).
• Also failed to hold major support Near rs.640 area.
• Holding period required - 3 months.
• Estimated profit - 40%, even after considering 2 days being late to identify trend on both buy and sell occasions.
• On daily chart, stock is in downtrend since Oct 22,in a series of lower high lower lows as trendline (grey) acted as a major resistance.

7. Adani ports. (ADANIPORTS)

• Points B1 and B2 are buys, while points S1 and S2 are sells. As you can see, there were many swing opportunities present.
• Estimated profit - 30-35%.

Ending thoughts-

• It is just as important to enter a trade as it is to exit one.
• Support and resistance are areas, not exact numbers. One support area produces a bounce to new highs.Sometimes they fail too.
• Charts are the only things in the market that do not lie. Learn to understand charts; you'll learn how a trend works.
• When you fight the trend, you are always fighting for pieces of small moves rather than a big move in the direction of the big trend.
• It is important to note that the uptrend is not broken simply because the line is broken; lower highs and lower lows are required to confirm a downtrend.
• After being in an oversold zone, share prices might give a dead cat bounce in upcoming sessions. but the overall trend will remain downward until it breaks major resistance.

'Dead Cat Bounce' is a market jargon for a situation where a security (read stock) or an index experiences a short-lived burst of upward movement in a largely downward trend. It is a temporary rally in the price of a security or an index after a major correction or downward trend.

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